This paper predicts the effects of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes on demand for 23 categories of packaged foods and beverages and the associated changes in calories, fat, and sodium intake and consumer welfare. Using household food purchase data from the national 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel, researchers used demand elasticity estimates to simulate the effects of a half-cent per ounce increase in SSB prices, in the form of an excise tax, on household purchases of calories and two key nutrients–fat and sodium. Findings suggest that a half-cent per ounce increase in SSB prices would reduce total calories from the 23 categories of foods and beverages, but increase sodium and fat intake as a result of substitution. The net effect is a reduction of 7.9 calories per person per day, and an increase in daily fat and sodium intake by 0.2 grams and 49.8 milligrams, respectively. The predicted decline in calories is larger for lower-income households (13.2 calories per day) than higher-income households (5.6 calories per day), although welfare loss is also higher among lower-income households. The welfare loss for lower-income households is about $5 per household per year more than higher-incomes households because lower-income households report higher SSB purchases.
Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System
Implications of a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) Tax When Substitutions to Non-Beverage Items are Considered
This paper estimates the changes in energy, fat, and sodium purchases resulting from a tax that increases sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) prices by 20 percent as well as the effect of such a tax on body weight. Researchers found that a 20 percent price increase on SSBs would result in a … More
This article examines the health and financial impact of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) on higher- and lower-income households. Using data from the 2006 Nielsen Homescan panel, researchers found that large taxes on SSBs have the potential to positively influence weight outcomes, especially for middle-income households. A 40 percent … More
Examining Higher and Lower Income Household Food Purchasing Behavior and Whether It May Be Responsible for Childhood Obesity
This project will examine the extent to which household food purchasing behavior differs between higher- and lower-income households and whether these differences may be partly responsible for socioeconomic differences in childhood obesity. In addition, investigators will use econometric models of household food purchases to simulate the extent to which pricing … More