Macroeconomic factors relating to economic, financial, and sociological stress are identified and their impacts assessed concerning participation in key food assistance programs (SNAP, WIC, and NSLP). The econometric analysis covers the period October 1999 to September 2020. The impact of COVID-19 on participation in these programs also is quantified. Based on the parameter estimates obtained from the econometric models, ex-ante forecasts of participation in the SNAP, WIC, and NSLP subsequently are made and evaluated over the period October 2020 to August 2021. The empirical results show that different sets of macroeconomic drivers affect participation levels across the respective food assistance programs. No macroeconomic factor is common across SNAP, WIC, and NSLP participation. Changes in macroeconomic conditions which influence SNAP, WIC and NSLP participation are not just contemporaneous but also affect participation levels anywhere from 1 month to 12 months later. Importantly, this research allows not only the determination of the macroeconomic factors which affect program participation but also allows the determination of the ability of the respective models to forecast program participation. As such, the Food and Nutrition Service will be in better position to assess program needs as well as to forecast program participation levels to minimize errors in the budgetary process.
Resource Type: Journal Article
State: National
Focus Areas: Nutrition Policy & Programs, Pricing & Economics
Keywords: School meal programs, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)
Related Research
June 2025
Changes in SNAP Participation and Food Expenditures for Households with Children During the Pandemic
The purposes of this research were to explore the characteristics of households with children that joined SNAP after substantial changes were made to the program in the early stages of the pandemic and to learn how the changes affected food purchases. The research team used household-based scanner data to assess demographic characteristics and food purchase MoreFebruary 2025
Consumption of the Food Groups with the Revised Benefits in the New WIC Food Package: A Scoping Review
On 18 April 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published the first food package changes to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) in over a decade, which reduced some food benefits (juice, milk, canned fish, and infant fruits and vegetables) and offered substitutes (cash-value vouchers (CVVs) or cash-value MoreJanuary 2025