Macroeconomic factors relating to economic, financial, and sociological stress are identified and their impacts assessed concerning participation in key food assistance programs (SNAP, WIC, and NSLP). The econometric analysis covers the period October 1999 to September 2020. The impact of COVID-19 on participation in these programs also is quantified. Based on the parameter estimates obtained from the econometric models, ex-ante forecasts of participation in the SNAP, WIC, and NSLP subsequently are made and evaluated over the period October 2020 to August 2021. The empirical results show that different sets of macroeconomic drivers affect participation levels across the respective food assistance programs. No macroeconomic factor is common across SNAP, WIC, and NSLP participation. Changes in macroeconomic conditions which influence SNAP, WIC and NSLP participation are not just contemporaneous but also affect participation levels anywhere from 1 month to 12 months later. Importantly, this research allows not only the determination of the macroeconomic factors which affect program participation but also allows the determination of the ability of the respective models to forecast program participation. As such, the Food and Nutrition Service will be in better position to assess program needs as well as to forecast program participation levels to minimize errors in the budgetary process.
Resource Type: Journal Article
State: National
Focus Areas: Nutrition Policy & Programs, Pricing & Economics
Keywords: School meal programs, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)
Related Research
June 2022
Additional Fruit and Vegetable Vouchers for Pregnant WIC Clients: An Equity-Focused Strategy to Improve Food Security and Diet Quality
Women with low household income and from racial/ethnic minority groups are at elevated risk of food insecurity. Food insecurity during pregnancy is associated with overall less healthy diets, lower intake of the pregnancy-supportive nutrients iron and folate, and significant variations in diet across the course of a month. The goal of this study was to MoreApril 2022
A click too far from fresh foods: A mixed methods comparison of online and in-store grocery behaviors among low-income households
A recent policy in the U.S. authorized monthly benefits from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) to be used online to increase grocery access and promote healthy eating. This study examined online grocery attitudes and purchasing behaviors among low-income SNAP-eligible households with young children with and without online grocery experience. An explanatory sequential mixed methods MoreMarch 2022